He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue — this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient — Timeform expected him to get a stone and more — but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.

Michael O’Leary, the owner, speaks

However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band. LH — Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard’s profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we’ve not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.

• The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change.
• Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only — and therefore first choice — entry.
• Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good.
• Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races — that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
• The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers.
• Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race — all of them short — were turned over.
• She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.
• Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon.

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• If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver.
• Her stablemate Nashwa is another with huge ability but is likely to need this run after a break.
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• Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle.
• Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established.
• De Boinville’s measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line.

That is not, of course, because he can’t or won’t win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently. On the other hand, many of Willie Mullins’s runners at Cheltenham over the years have worn earplugs which have not been declared, so the figures only tell part of the story. Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations. Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher. Six of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Henry De Bromhead (2). It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers.

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The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six. Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it.

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This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.

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They’re off in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

The way he jumped/travelled that day marked him down as one who will be well served by the demands of this race. CAPADANO (each-way) has had a better prep this season and can improve on last year’s showing in the Grand National. Get ready to listen to a friend of a friend tell you a 50/1 shot will bolt up and after all of your research, your Granny backs the winner because she liked the jockey’s colours. Tiger Roll’s 2019 Aintree heroics in partnership with Russell was the first time a horse had won back-to-back renewals since Red Rum in the 1970s. “He’s been bumping into some good horses and he’s a tough old dude, he’s Taghrooda’s brother. I like feeling that we have been a part of the process and it is not just because it’s a good horse.

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That doesn’t mean Ireland doesn’t have a say in the race, though, as Irish-bred horses have been responsible for the last five winners and ten of the last 11 (exception French-bred). Willie also has Il Etait Temps, soundly enough beaten by GW at Limerick in that Faugheen but a winner either side, most recently in the G1 Irish Arkle, also at the DRF. He too wears a hood here and, though more likely to run his race than Gaelic Warrior, I feel, his best race is not as good as that one’s, and only a fine margin in front of Found A Fifty, just a neck back last month.

Nicky Henderson on his fifth Champion Chase win

I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so. In 2021, Epatante could only finish third in the Champion Hurdle, behind Honeysuckle. Marie’s Rock had recently run third in a mares’ Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start. A year later, last year, and Honeysuckle again won the Champion Hurdle with Epatante her nearest pursuer on this occasion.

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A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo’s brace of GC’s, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions). Native River beat Might Bite for a British 1-2 in 2018, but prior to that it was Irish eyes smiling in both 2017 and 2016, where Team Green bagged the first four places home. The nearly-four-miler as it has become known is in many ways the bellwether for the meeting and indeed the sport. It’s a really tough heat with even fewer clues than your average Festival handicap.

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He was unlucky at Haydock last Saturday and a return to this trip will suit. TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. She was desperately unlucky not to win the 1,000 Guineas here in May and stepping up in trip in two French Group 1s has not really suited. She looked much more comfortable when bolting up over this trip at Sandown in August. Sunracing’s columnist Andrew Balding saddles likely favourite Brighton Boy and he was very strong at the finish at York. She’s bred to handle the ground and the only concern would be her 100-day absence, but, given the big money on offer, she will surely be primed for this.

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44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps — or maybe just coincidence — two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.

AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. Al Qareem is a gritty front runner and showed plenty of guts to win this last year. He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him. As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls. Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys). But it is worth further squinting at the data, because it relates that those aged five or six notched 27 of the 39 wins (69%) from just 49% of the runners.

• William Haggas’ filly was a smooth winner of a handicap at Sandown last month and should still be competitive off an 8lb higher mark.
• I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go.
• But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved.
• She looked much more comfortable when bolting up over this trip at Sandown in August.
• Willie Mullins is the dominant player in this sphere over the last decade, his fifteen winners almost double that of the next man (Nicky Henderson has eight).
• I’ve spoken historically about «the rule of two», whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke.

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David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from Bolts Up Daily across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.

At the end I will delve briefly into Grade 1 contests only. In terms of profit and loss, I am going to use Betfair Starting Price, and take into account commission on potential profits. MT — Ground important for Teahupoo who wants «proper soft». SH — If Blazing Khal runs, he will go off favourite and looks the most likely winner. In the Balco Coastal camp, possibly got there too soon in the Scilly Isles, and might appreciate going left-handed. SH — Betting each way at shortish prices is not for everyone, but Banbridge will surely be hard to keep out of the frame and has a solid win chance, too.

Post-Millennium

Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).